The 10% Solution: How to Respond to the Haitian Earthquake

Brian E. Tucker

"The death and injury of thousands of innocent people as a result of the M 7.0 earthquake that struck Haiti on January 12th and the economic hardship of tens of thousands of Haitians that will surely follow in the near future is absolutely tragic, in the sense that these people are not responsible for their suffering. But this suffering is not due to an "act of God" that no one could foresee. While earthquakes are not as frequent as hurricanes in the Caribbean, they are common. Also, it is well known that poor design and construction practice results in buildings that collapse during earthquakes – killing and injuring the inhabitants and causing social disruption, sometimes for generations. Japan and the State of California have improved their building codes and construction practices and as a result, the lethality of earthquakes in both places has been reduced over the last century by an order of magnitude. We know how to mitigate the devastating effects of earthquakes.

For someone like myself, who has devoted most of his professional life to reducing loss of life and suffering due to natural disasters, to see the images coming out of Haiti is like seeing the scene of an accident caused by a drunk driver whom you had tried again and again to stop from drinking and driving. The suffering of innocents is terrible to witness. But almost as terrible is the fear that government authorities will not learn and take corrective actions to keep this from happening in the future, elsewhere.

After taking care of the victims in Haiti, we should approach the people who allowed hospitals and schools to be constructed in ways that would collapse during an earthquake. Wouldn't it have been a wonderful symbol if the United Nations building in Haiti had been properly built or retrofitted to resist earthquakes, and we could all observe it standing now? That could have taught many people the life lesson that we can plan for and mitigate against natural hazards.

It is not enough to "build back better," and it is not enough to focus only on Port au Prince. After the victims have been treated, we should quickly focus attention and resources on reducing the consequences of the earthquakes that we know will hit Haiti in the future. Any foreign investments in infrastructure development should account for the risk of natural disasters. Any construction funded by foreign sources should involve local masons, who should be trained to build structures that can resist the effects of natural disasters. A school earthquake safety program, similar to California's, should be launched in Haiti. Laws should be passed that establish earthquake safety standards for hospital construction. A school-based public awareness campaign should educate the young about earthquakes and hurricanes, and what can be done to mitigate their effects.

"How will impoverished Haiti pay for these programs?"

I propose that agencies soliciting funds for the response to and recovery from the Haitian earthquake commit 10% of the amount that they collect to mitigating future earthquakes: to preparedness and prevention activities like mason training, public awareness programs, improved engineering curricula in local universities, geologic hazards mapping, and developing effective earthquake safety public policies. Why 10%? Because the rule of thumb is that each dollar invested in preventing natural disasters saves ten dollars in future damage.

If we fail to learn from this earthquake to do all that we can to prevent such losses in the future, that will be a second tragedy.

As usually defined, Risk is a simple product of (Probability x Consequences). However, when probability (P) tends to zero and consequences (V) tend to be high, Risk (R) tends to become a paradox kind of  (0 x Infinite) which is difficult, if not impossible to deal with.

Decision aid, Economic behaviour theory, Decision under uncertainty, Utility theory, ..., usually use the formula R=PxV to predict or indicate possible (maximum utility) courses of action (homo aeconomicus). However, as seen in the later formulation, in such a case, risk becomes something difficult to percieve. So, other approaches  seem necessary to address seismic risk. Should we, (homo sapiens), invest in reducing high consequences from  plausible but not probable threats ?.

Haiti quake: The worst of places for a big tremor

Haiti is the poorest country in the western hemisphere and has suffered a number of recent disasters, including four hurricanes and storms in 2008 that killed hundreds.
Economy: The economy is in ruins and unemployment is chronic

The Haiti's 7.0 earthquake, which struck about 15km south-west of Port-au-Prince, was quickly followed by two strong aftershocks of 5.9 and 5.5 magnitude.
The extent of the devastation is still unclear but there are fears thousands of people may have died. Up to three million people have been affected by the quake, one-third of the country's population.

The simplest concrete structures in the capital of Port-au-Prince have collapsed.
Phone lines to the country failed shortly afterwards.
The headquarters for the U.N. peacekeeping mission in Haiti collapsed.
General Hospital in Port-au-Prince is down, Haitian National Palace is damaged.
The earthquake also collapsed the main prison in Haiti's capital, with reports of escaped inmates.
"Crushed thousands of structures — from schools and shacks to the National Palace and the local U.N. headquarters."(NBC, msnbc.com and news services)

"I didn't see any emergency services, the people at the neighbourhood were trying to help each other.

The streets are narrow and there is lot of traffic and everyone is trying to reach family and friends. Traffic now is really difficult. People don't know where to go or where to start."(Carel Pedre, TV and radio presenter, Port-au-Prince)

"Doctors Without Borders said its three hospitals in Haiti were unusable and it was treating the injured at temporary shelters.

The reality of what we are seeing is severe traumas, head wounds, crushed limbs, severe problems that cannot be dealt with the level of medical care we currently have available with no infrastructure really to support it," said Paul McPhun, an operations manager for the charity.